Hi folks,
Here’s our final weekly update of the year. The Arakan Army (AA) has announced it’s ready for talks, shifting to diplomacy after some major wins on the ground. It’s perfect timing as the AA has got the upper hand now and great leverage for negotiations with the junta.
For the rest of the country, this is something to learn from. Without taking significant territory first, starting talks would just give the junta a chance to crush our hopes and weaken the resistance bit by bit. We fully back the AA’s move and will keep supporting the armed resistance everywhere else in Myanmar.
Read the highlights below:
Internal Politics
- NUG and NUCC continued to reject the regime’s 2025 election
The National Unity Government (NUG) and the National Unity Consultative Council (NUCC) announced on December 24 that they will continue to oppose the regime’s planned elections in 2025. They described the upcoming election as a sham, designed solely to legitimize the military’s hold on power rather than reflect the will of the people. According to their statement, the election lacks legitimacy because the 2008 Constitution, which previously governed such processes, has been voided. The NUG and NUCC also highlighted the worsening humanitarian situation caused by ongoing military offensives, noting a rise in displaced civilians and the forced recruitment of young people into military service. They warned that the military council might manipulate the election through intimidation, potentially forcing people to vote at gunpoint while falsifying voter lists and results. Despite these challenges, the NUG and NUCC affirmed their commitment to pursuing lasting peace and an end to military dictatorship.
- Coup leader called for unity amid growing losses
As the regime continues to lose control of key territories, including regional headquarters, regime chief Min Aung Hlaing emphasized the importance of unity both within and beyond the armed forces. Speaking at a graduation ceremony for female cadets at the Hmawbi Military Training School in Yangon on December 23, the military leader stressed the need for cohesion among military personnel and their families. He asserted that internal unity would prevent the military from being fractured and called for active efforts to strengthen ties outside the military as well. Addressing the female officers, he urged them to focus on organizing efforts in the interests of the state and ethnic communities. Additionally, he reminded all military personnel to adhere to both national military laws and internationally recognized rules of warfare, including the Geneva Convention.
- Captured regime general admitted defeat in Rakhine State
In a video released by the Arakan Army (AA) on December 26, Brigadier General Kyaw Kyaw Than, a captured commander of the regime, admitted that the military has effectively lost the war in Rakhine State. He revealed that during the AA’s offensive, reinforcements failed to arrive, soldiers faced severe food shortages, and the regime’s forces were ultimately overwhelmed by the AA’s superior strategy and firepower. He also stated that the coup leader must accept defeat in Rakhine and refrain from further violence against civilians, warning that continued aggression would only deepen public resentment for generations. He further acknowledged that the Arakan Army has treated prisoners of war in accordance with the Prisoners of War Act and urged his fellow soldiers to surrender rather than remain loyal to ineffective leadership. On December 20, the Arakan Army successfully captured the Western Military Command in Ann Township, marking a significant blow to the regime’s control in the region.
- AA reaffirmed commitment to regional liberation and foreign cooperation
On December 29, the AA released a statement emphasizing diplomacy over military conflict and showing the openness to political solutions. This statement came after having secured the majority of Rakhine State and capture of the military’s headquarters in the region. The Arakan People’s Revolutionary Government (APRG) welcomed foreign investments that contribute to the development of the Arakan region, and pledged to safeguard the security of investors, their projects and business operations. The statement also highlighted the armed group’s successful collaboration with China, along Kokang and Ta’ang groups, in addressing shared concerns such as border stability, violence prevention and the crackdown of online gambling activities. The AA concluded the statement by reassuring its commitment to building a peaceful, equitable and self-determined future for the people of Arakan.
- The regime excluded NCA signatories from Independence Day celebrations
The regime invited political parties to participate in the upcoming 77th Independence Day celebrations, but notably excluded ethnic armed groups that had signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), according to Colonel Khun Okkar, a long-time Pa-O politician. In previous years, ethnic resistance groups were regularly invited to attend Independence Day events and held discussions with political parties. However, Colonel Khun Okkar described this year’s exclusion as an unusual and concerning shift in approach. While political parties have received invitations, the details of planned meetings during the celebrations have yet to be disclosed according to U Aye Lwin, chairman of the National Political League of the Union of Myanmar. The 77th Independence Day celebrations will be organized by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, under the leadership of U Than Swe, the deputy prime minister and Union Minister for Foreign Affairs appointed by the regime. The absence of ethnic armed groups at such a significant national event raises questions about the regime’s commitment to dialogue and inclusive political engagement.
International Affairs
- Ireland to intervene in ICJ case against Myanmar over Rohingya genocide
On December 24, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) announced that Ireland has formally applied to intervene in the ongoing genocide case against Myanmar, brought forward by The Gambia in 2019 under the 1948 Genocide Convention. Ireland’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Michael Martin, confirmed that the Irish government had granted approval to intervene in two high-profile ICJ cases—Myanmar and Israel—during the first cabinet meeting since the country’s general election. Martin stated that Ireland would also request the ICJ to provide a broader interpretation of what legally constitutes genocide under international law. With Ireland’s intervention, the number of countries supporting The Gambia in the case against Myanmar now stands at 11. This development underscores growing international pressure on Myanmar to be held accountable for the alleged atrocities committed against the Rohingya minority.
- Bangladesh declined talks with AA over border issues
Bangladesh’s Foreign Affairs Minister, Md. Touhid Hossain, stated on December 22 that it is not possible for Bangladesh to engage with the AA to resolve the ongoing Bangladesh-Myanmar border crisis, as the AA is not recognized as a government entity. Speaking to reporters in Dhaka, the minister emphasized that while the AA currently controls the Bangladesh-Myanmar border, Bangladesh, as a sovereign state, cannot hold official discussions with a non-governmental organization. Meanwhile, the Myanmar military council’s foreign minister has reportedly assured Bangladesh that efforts are underway to regain control of the Rakhine-Bangladesh border. The situation underscores the complexity of the border crisis, with both military and non-state actors influencing the dynamics in the region.
- India tightened border entry rules for Myanmar citizens
On December 26, Manipur State Minister A N Biren Singh announced that the Indian government would tighten regulations governing the movement of local ethnic groups along the India-Myanmar border. Currently, the Indian government allows ethnic minorities from Myanmar’s border region to travel up to 16 kilometers into India without a visa. However, recent concerns about migration and security have led to calls for stricter travel restrictions. In response to requests from several northeastern states, the Indian Home Ministry has decided to amend the existing free movement policy, aiming to align it with international standards. As a result, Myanmar citizens will now be required to obtain passports and visas to enter India. Myanmar refugees living on the Indian border have expressed concerns over this decision, particularly regarding the new requirements for foreigners to apply in advance to enter the Indian states of Mizoram, Manipur, and Nagaland. Civil society organizations report that around 70,000 refugees fleeing violence in Myanmar’s Chin State, Magway Region, and Sagaing Region are affected by the new restrictions, which now apply to Myanmar’s border areas.
- Malaysian PM met Thaksin Shinawatra ahead of his ASEAN chairmanship in 2025
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar, who is set to assume the ASEAN chairmanship, recently met with former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra to discuss regional issues, including the ongoing crisis in Myanmar, according to Thai media reports. The meeting followed Anwar’s appointment of Thaksin as an advisor. They focused on key regional priorities, such as economic recovery, leveraging emerging technologies, promoting peace in southern Thailand, and addressing the Myanmar crisis. Thaksin highlighted that his extensive regional network and experience would offer valuable opportunities for Malaysia and ASEAN. The discussions also aimed at strengthening the strong bilateral relationship between Malaysia and Thailand. Malaysia is set to assume the rotating ASEAN chairmanship in 2025.
Business Matters
- The regime to collaborate with a Chinese company on a gas terminal project
The regime is in talks with a Chinese company to jointly build a gas storage, processing, and distribution facility, known as a Gas Terminal, in Nay Pyi Taw and Rakhine State. On December 23, the regime announced that it had engaged in discussions with China’s South-East Asia Crude Oil Pipeline/Gas Pipeline company regarding the facility’s construction. However, the exact location of the terminal has not been disclosed. A source close to the regime’s Ministry of Energy told Myanmar Now that the project is planned for the Maha Gas Block, located offshore in Rakhine State. The Maha Gas Block, situated 30 kilometers from the Shwe Gas Project—responsible for exporting natural gas to China—is near Kyaukpyu, where the China-Myanmar oil and gas pipeline starts. The Maha Gas Block, discovered in early 2020, is expected to produce 38 million cubic feet of natural gas per day. South Korean company Posco International, which leads the project, indicated plans for continued commercial production studies, though no further updates have been provided since the military coup. The Chinese company also operates its Southeast Asia Oil and Gas Pipeline Management Office in Dakshina Thiri Township, Nay Pyi Taw, as stated in a government release from January 2021. The source also assumed that the construction of the Terminal will only be at the proposal stage by the military regime.
- The regime increased customs duty calculation by 70% starting 2025
The Customs Department under the regime announced that, effective January 1, customs duties on imports and exports will be calculated using the Central Bank’s market exchange rate, replacing the previous rate set by the Central Bank. This change in calculation will result in a 70 percent increase in customs duties. For example, a product that previously cost 100 kyats will now cost 170 kyats. This rise in customs duty is expected to drive up the prices of imported goods. The statement clarified that weekly foreign exchange rates would be announced based on the market exchange rate used to calculate the duty. For the period from January 1 to 4, the following exchange rates will be applied for customs duty calculations: 3586.8 kyats to the US dollar, 3755.92 kyats to the euro, 104.754 kyats to the Thai baht, 42.238 kyats to the Indian rupee, and 492.28 kyats to the Chinese yuan—an increase of over 70 percent. Meanwhile the regime still demands the exporters to exchange 25% of their export earnings at the exchange rate of 2100 kyats to a US dollar.
- The regime suspended a publisher’s licence over obscene text allegations
The regime’s Ministry of Information suspended the business license of Maple Publishing for allegedly violating the Printing and Publishing Law, according to reports from regime-controlled newspapers on December 24. Maple Publishing, which published “Love Ties” by Mya Mo and “Match Made in Clouds” by DIDI Zaw, announced that its publishing license was revoked on December 19 due to the inclusion of obscene content in the books. The Ministry of Information also stated that both the publisher and the printers involved would face prosecution under the Printing and Publishing Law. A publisher, who wished to remain anonymous for security reasons, expressed concerns about the regime’s approach, arguing that such extreme measures against publications were not the correct course of action. In November, the regime had already revoked the licenses of the “Golden Nation” publishing and poster distribution company, Right Printing House, and The Destiny Book House for similar alleged violations of the Printing and Publishing Law. Publishers and distributors have reported that since the coup, more than thirty literary and media outlets have been banned by the military council.
Humanitarian Affairs
- Human trafficking of women to China increased
The Kachin Women’s Association of Thailand (KWAT) reported a significant increase in the number of women trafficked as Chinese wives in recent years, with some women being trafficked even beyond the Chinese border. KWAT’s new report reveals that while previously most of the trafficking victims came from Kachin and Shan states, in recent years, over half of the victims have been from other parts of Myanmar, including Yangon. While border gates were closed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the number of forced marriages to Chinese women decreased due to travel restrictions. However, after the coup, KWAT’s report indicates that women are now being sold to Chinese-run online fraud gangs in northeastern Shan State. The majority of women forced into marriage are recruited by relatives or acquaintances linked to trafficking gangs that have thrived in both China and Myanmar for decades. KWAT’s interviews with 187 trafficking survivors reveal that most women were lured across the border with promises of well-paid work in Chinese factories and farms, only to be coerced into marriage.
- Over 50 dead in Mattaya due to lack of medical care and aid
Locals told RFA on December 25 that at least 50 people have died in Mattaya Township, Mandalay Region, this month alone due to being denied medical treatment during an ongoing military offensive by the regime. Over 30,000 residents from approximately 70 villages have fled their homes due to the fighting between the regime and the defense forces. A person assisting displaced people told RFA that around 40 people died in December due to a lack of emergency medical supplies, including about 10 elderly individuals who perished from the cold. The deaths are attributed to a range of factors, including insufficient blankets and warm clothing, inadequate medical treatment for injuries from airstrikes and artillery, and a lack of timely medical attention for snake bites. Aid workers say that the displaced community urgently needs assistance, including food, medicine, warm clothing, blankets, and shelter.
- About 30,000 displaced people in Bhamo need urgent aid amid ongoing conflict
On December 27, aid workers reported that approximately 30,000 people who fled the fighting for control of Bhamo town in Kachin State are in urgent need of food, medicine, raincoats, and clothing. These displaced people have sought shelter in villages across Momauk, Shweku, and Mansi townships. A source assisting them told RFA that people are taking refuge in camps, with relatives, in forests, schools, and religious buildings, facing numerous hardships. The majority of the displaced people have fled to villages in Momauk, Shweku, and Mansi townships, with some seeking refuge in Mandalay and Myitkyina. Some locals remain in Bhamo, despite the ongoing conflict.
- 5000 fled Kamma township in Magway due to the military’s raids
Since December 25, about 5,000 people have fled Kamma Township and surrounding villages in Pakokku Township, Magway Region, as the regime troops began raiding the area. Residents from villages such as Pyay Ai, Inkyin Pin, Thayat Kan, Chaung Oo, and the town of Kamma have been forced to flee. A local source told RFA that around 200 soldiers from Pakokku were raiding Kamma, dividing into three groups and taking positions at key locations, including the market, a pagoda, and a monastery. While some locals have stayed indoors, most have fled to nearby villages. The regime is reportedly occupying the city’s police station and school, possibly to transport food to Pauk Township and protect villages in Pakokku Township, where Pyu Saw Htee armed groups are active. In Pakokku Township, more than 100 homes were set on fire between December 13 and 23, with the regime and Pyu Saw Htee group accused of jointly carrying out the arson.
Attacks on the Junta’s Lackeys & Assets
- Detained political prisoners rescued during Chin battles
The Chin Brotherhood (CB) announced the rescue of 15 political prisoners during battles for Mindat and Kanpetlet in southern Chin State. Among those freed from the Mindat police station were 10 men and three women, primarily local Chin residents, according to a CB spokesperson. The rescued individuals are from Yaw Township in Magway Region, Mara Township in Chin State, and Kalay Township in Sagaing Region. One of the prisoners, a firefighter who joined the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM), had been sentenced to life imprisonment under the Coutnerterrorism Act. He was arrested at a military checkpoint while attempting to buy rice for his family during the military’s travel ban in the Chin region.
- Military informer shot dead in Pauk Kaung tsp, Bago region
On December 24, at 4:30 pm, Khin Soe, a resident of Nattalin village in Pauk Kaung Township, Bago Region, was shot dead by the 3601 PPDF Battalion, at his home. Khin Soe was allegedly involved in recruiting soldiers for the regime, organizing forced labor for youth, coercing minors into working as porters, and gathering intelligence on resistance supporters. The PPDF Battalion, Pyay District, issued a public warning against cooperating with, supporting, or traveling to areas under military control.
- Ward administrator targeted and killed in Yangon
San Ngwe, a ward administrator in Sanchaung Township, Yangon Region, who was accused of extorting and abducting young men for forced military service, succumbed to his injuries on December 26. On December 24, at around 10:10 am, the Freeland Attack Force (FLA) targeted San Ngwe at the administrative office on Home Street. He was shot in the stomach and rushed to Yangon General Hospital, where he died two days later. An FLA official stated that San Ngwe had been actively registering individuals from neighboring areas for military conscription while sparing his close associates and relatives. The attack was carried out in response to his actions, which had caused significant hardship to the local community under the guise of military obligations.
Arbitrary Arrests, Killings & Violence
- Junta systematically abducting young people for conscription
The regime has intensified its efforts to recruit young people for military service, according to sources close to the military. These efforts include forced conscription in villages, arbitrary arrests, and systematic recruitment in urban areas.A Yangon resident with ties to the military reported that the regime is leveraging blackouts to detain young people under the guise of military needs. “The military is systematically filling its ranks, not only by drafting two recruits per neighborhood but also by resorting to random arrests,” the source said. The junta’s primary goal is to bolster the frontlines amidst escalating conflict.
- Regime conducted airstrikes in Sittwe, Rakhine
Military jets carried out a series of airstrikes on villages near the regional command headquarters and the Shwe Min Gan naval base in Sittwe Township, Rakhine State, on December 23. The bombings, which started around midnight and lasted an hour, involved at least 20 bombs, locals reported. A resident of Sittwe said the strikes targeted suspected Arakan Army (AA) positions. “The military likely received intelligence about an AA attack on Sittwe,” he explained. Details of the damage remain unclear due to disrupted communication lines, but security has since tightened in the area, with increased checks by military and police forces.
- Political prisoner died after being denied medical care in Monywa
The Political Prisoners Network of Myanmar (PPNM) confirmed the death of 33-year-old political prisoner Ko Bon Bon on December 25 at Monywa Police Station, Sagaing Region, after being denied adequate medical care. Ko Bon Bon, a transgender person, had been suffering from severe kidney disease and internal bleeding. Despite repeated pleas for medical attention starting in November, authorities failed to provide necessary treatment. By mid-December, Ko Bon Bon could no longer eat or move their lower body. On December 23, two days before their death, the Monywa Township Court sentenced Ko Bon Bon to ten years under the Counter-Terrorism Law and two additional years under Section 505(a) of the Penal Code.
- Junta troops abducted 100 civilians in Budalin Township, Sagaing Region
Military forces abducted approximately 100 civilians in Budalin Township, Sagaing Region, on December 25, according to local sources and PDF members. The abductees, mainly women, were taken from the Monywa-Budalin highway and nearby village fields as 150 soldiers advanced from the Northwestern Military District Headquarters in Monywa. The arrests highlight the regime’s increasing reliance on civilian detentions to suppress resistance.
- Junta airstrike killed two children in Madaya Township, Mandalay Region
An artillery strike by junta forces on a monastery in Madaya Township, Mandalay Region, killed two children and injured three civilians on December 26. A spokesperson for the MDY-PDF clarified that the incident was not connected to any ongoing clashes. “This was an indiscriminate attack targeting civilians,” the spokesperson said, labeling the regime’s actions as war crimes. The military’s reckless targeting of civilian areas continues to result in tragic loss of life.
Armed Resistance
- PDF warned travelers on Yangon-Mandalay Expressway of potential clashes
The Natogyi People’s Defense Force (4-10) Battalion in Myingyan District issued a warning on December 24, advising travelers to avoid unnecessary trips on the Yangon-Mandalay Expressway due to imminent clashes with junta forces. PDF soldiers temporarily blocked vehicles near milepost 318, urging travelers to exercise caution, avoid nighttime travel, and seek safety if fighting breaks out. In a video shared by the PDF, a soldier is heard saying, “There will be fighting on this road soon. We request you to cooperate with us.” At least 30 civilians disembarked from their vehicles to listen to the warning.
- Clashes intensified in Launglon Township, Tanintharyi Region
Fierce battles have erupted in Launglon Township, Tanintharyi Region, as junta forces deploy air, naval, and ground troops against local resistance groups. The clashes, centered around Kyauk Ni Maw village, have forced over 8,000 residents to flee to safer areas, locals reported on December 25. Resistance forces stated that the junta is sending reinforcements by warship to Kyauk Ni Maw village, which lies between the Dawei River and the Bay of Bengal. Fighting continues in key locations such as pagoda hill and tower camp hill.
- Chin forces lose seven rangers during Mindat Victory
Seven members of the 3rd Battalion of Monywa District lost their lives in the battle for Mindat, Chin State, according to a December 27 statement. The Chin Brotherhood, supported by the Yaw Development Force (YDF), Yaw Army (YA), and the 3rd Battalion, launched the operation to capture Mindat on November 9. On December 21, the Chin Brotherhood seized the last military base in Mindat, Infantry Battalion 274, gaining full control of the township. During the operation, 123 junta troops surrendered, and approximately 160 family members were also captured. Despite the victory, the losses underscore the high cost of the ongoing struggle.
- AA captured Gwa, Rakhine State
The Arakan Army (AA) announced on December 29 that it had completely taken control of all military bases in Gwa, located on the Rakhine-Ayeyarwady border. “We have captured all military council bases in Gwa,” confirmed AA spokesperson U Khaing Thu Kha. He added that AA forces are pursuing junta troops retreating from the area. While fighting continues in some parts, the AA has not yet disclosed details regarding prisoners of war or seized weapons.
- SAC prepared for combat in Magway Region after losses in Chin and Rakhine
Following significant defeats in Rakhine and Chin States, the junta is intensifying preparations for combat in Magway Region, home to several critical ammunition factories. After losing Ann, the headquarters of the Western Region Command, to the AA, and Mindat and Kanpetlet in southern Chin State to allied revolutionary forces, the junta is reinforcing troops in Magway. The People’s Revolutionary Alliance (PRA) reports that the military is transporting ammunition supplies and mobilizing new recruits, including Pyu Saw Htee militia, to counter resistance activities in the region.
Sources: Myanmar Now, Khit Thit Media, RFA Burmese, DVB Burmese, The Irrawaddy
