Hi folks, here’s another weekly update.
Internal Politics
- Cyclone Mocha aftermath: Water-borne diseases and food insecurity persist
Two weeks after Cyclone Mocha, water-borne diseases have been spreading and food insecurity remains intact according to a UN official. On June 2, the country representative of the UNDP Titon Mitra said that the cyclone wiped out homes, agricultural lands, and food, resulting in the immediate need for clean water sources, and food items. As the monsoon approached, the UN official said that more rescue teams from the international community should be allowed to provide relief aid for storm-affected communities. The UN has announced that 1.6 million people in Rakhine, Chin, Magway, Sagaing, and Kachin states are in need of immediate humanitarian assistance. He also said that rescue teams have not reached some rural areas in Rakhine State. The World Food Program (WFP) is also seeking funds to obtain USD 60 million to provide emergency food and nutrition assistance to 2.1 million people around the country, if additional funds are not received, people may face food shortages starting from August 2023 according to the statement on May 31.
- The NUG to file a lawsuit against the regime in Australia
The National Unity Government (NUG)’s Minister for Human Rights U Aung Myo Min said that the parallel government will file a lawsuit against the Myanmar military generals in Australia. The minister, who is currently visiting Australia, explained in an interview with Myanmar Now that Australia recognizes universal jurisdiction, which means that the country can exercise criminal jurisdiction over the individuals responsible for the most serious crimes of international concern regardless of where the crimes take place. In layman’s terms, Australia has the authority to prosecute and punish these offenders on behalf of the international community. U Aung Myo Min said that the military regime has been committing crimes against humanity on a daily basis, for instance, the Pazigyi Massacre. and the NUG has collected evidence for these crimes. During his visit to Australia, the Minister for Human Rights urged Australian politicians and parliamentarians to impose tighter sanctions against the military regime.
- No consensus was reached at the China-facilitated peace talk in Mongla
With the facilitation of China, a dialogue between the military regime’s peace negotiation team and three members of the Northern Alliance took place in Mongla, Eastern Shan State on June 1-2. The three ethnic armed groups in attendance are Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), Kokang’s Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and Rakhine’s Arakan Army (AA), and they have previously shown support to the ongoing anti-regime revolution. Mr. Yao Kao Pao of the Yunnan Province was also in attendance to facilitate the dialogue. According to the Irrawaddy News on June 3, the dialogue concluded without having made any concrete agreement. The regime’s peace negotiation team said that a multiparty election is to be held, the Nationwide Ceasefire Accord remains intact and the ethnic groups will be granted autonomy. The delegates from the three EAOs did not make any agreement as they need to report back to senior officials.
- NLD’s Deputy Minister U Set Aung released from Ramethin Prison
On June 2, BBC Burmese reported that U Set Aung, who served as the Deputy Minister of Planning & Finance during the NLD administration, has been released from Ramethin Prison. He, along with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, Dr. Sean Turnell, and union ministers U Soe Win and U Kyaw Win, faced charges for alleged violations of the Official Secrets Act. In September 2022, U Set Aung was sentenced to three years of imprisonment, but he was released this week after considering the days he was detained before his sentencing. All individuals involved in the same case except for Daw Aung San Suu Kyi have been released.
- Experts say that the strength of the Myanmar military is only over 100,000
On June 2, Nikkei Asia Review published that the Myanmar military has been struggling to face the revolutionary forces. Citing political analyst Ye Myo Hein, Nikkei Asia reported that about 13,000 soldiers have died in the conflicts, and about 8,000 have defected from the army, hence, the military has lost a total of 21,000 troops since the coup. Unable to effectively recruit new soldiers, the Myanmar military, combing all infantry, navy, and air forces, has about 150,000 troops in total now according to the analyst. Anthony Davis, a Myanmar affair analyst based in Bangkok, also said that the strength of the Myanmar military in the post-coup period is completely different from the previous estimates. He said that the current strength is between 100,000 to 120,000. These are the estimates done by security analysts as the successive Myanmar army generals never disclosed the official figures of its troops or the casualties.
International Affairs
- UN Special Envoy to Myanmar Dr Noeleen Heyzer completed her tenure
On May 31, the office of the UN Special Envoy to Myanmar Dr Noelee Heyzer announced that her tenure will end on June 12. She took office in October 2021 and her incumbency lasted for 20 months. While serving in UNESCAP, she visited Naypyidaw and interacted with military generals during the time of former General Than Shwe. Hence, some sort of resolution or improvements were expected when her appointment as the special envoy was announced. During her tenure, she visited Napyidaw and met with the junta chief Min Aung Hlaing. Her request to meet the detained leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi was denied during the trip. Dr. Heyzer’s office announced that the senior UN official has been engaging with the civilian-elected National Unity Government (NUG) since December 2021, but analysts concluded that she could not make significant changes or improvements to Myanmar’s current situation during her time as the special envoy. On June 3, just a few days before the end of her tenure, Dr. Heyzer met with Daw Zin Mar Aung, the NUG’s Foreign Minister, in Geneva, Switzerland. Daw Zin Mar Aung acknowledged the UN official’s effort in the most difficult time and said that an individual cannot succeed in solving the issue, but the international community must work together.
- China’s Intelligence Official met with the Myanmar military generals
The director-general of the Chinese Intelligence Major-General Yang Yang visited Naypyidaw and held a meeting with General Soe Win, second in command of the Myanmar military on May 30 according to the regime-controlled newspaper. Lt General Ye Win Oo, joint secretary of the military council and chief security officer of the military, was also in attendance. According to the news, both sides discussed bilateral cooperation and stability in border areas, but no further information was disclosed. It was only less than a week when China’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang visited Naypyidaw and met with current and former military juntas.
- Russia to support the regime’s upcoming election
The coup leader Min Aung Hlaing and Sholban Kara-Ool, Deputy Chairman of the State of Duma, Russia, met in Taunggyi, Shan State on May 30. After the meeting, the military council announced that Russia will support the military in holding a free and fair election. The visiting Russian official also held meetings with military representatives and the regime-assembled Union Election Commission Chair U Thein Soe. Military council officials have often stated that elections will be held and power will be returned to the winning party, but they have not said when the elections will be held. After the regime amended the Political Parties Registration Law, some political parties applied to the Election Commission for registration, but the prominent political parties, such as the National League for Democracy (NLD) and the Shan Ethnic League for Democracy (SNLD) did not register.
- ASEAN-Japan Center accused of supporting the Myanmar military
Justice For Myanmar (JFM) reported that the ASEAN-Japan Center has been supporting the activities of the regime. JFM said that the inclusion of U Soe Han, Myanmar’s ambassador to Japan, in the Center’s council lends legitimacy to the regime and encourages its engagement in terrorist activities. Leaked documents and public sources indicate that the center provided a grant to the Ministry of Foreign Economic Relations, which is under the control of the military regime. Despite requests for transparency, the ASEAN-Japan Center has refused to disclose the exact amount of funding, citing it can only be accessed by board members. The center’s collaboration with the regime’s Ministry of Hotels and Tourism and its promotion of tourism in Myanmar are viewed as activities that legitimize the regime and support its efforts in capacity-building. Justice For Myanmar urges ASEAN and Japan to discontinue their involvement with the military to prevent further support for its crimes.
Business Matters
- Resumption of US$700 million Yoma Central Project in downtown Yangon
According to a reliable source associated with one of the corporations involved, the construction of a multi-use complex in the historic Burma Railway Company located in downtown Yangon, which had been paused during the February 2021 coup, has now resumed. The Yoma Central Project, valued at over US$700 million, is spearheaded by business magnate Serge Pun’s Yoma Strategic Holdings, in partnership with First Myanmar Investment (FMI), also owned by Pun. The project aims to establish a shopping center, a five-star hotel, an office building, and high-end residences within and surrounding the former headquarters of the country’s primary railway company. Despite gaining momentum initially, Yoma Strategic Holdings announced in May 2021, approximately three months after the coup, that it was temporarily suspending work on the project due to the economic uncertainties prevailing in Myanmar. Meeting minutes from March indicate that the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) each contributed 5% of the total project cost through loans, and once the matters pertaining to these loans are resolved, the renovations will recommence.
- Junta promotes Chinese electric vehicles in a propaganda piece
The regime published an editorial in a junta-controlled newspaper praising Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs). Disguised as an op-ed, the article serves as a promotional piece for various Chinese EVs, including cars, motorcycles, three-wheelers, and bicycles. The introduction of these EVs by Chinese automakers took place during the Myanmar-China (Lancang) Economic Expo held in Naypyidaw, the regime’s administrative capital, from May 25 to 28. Rumors suggest that the regime plans to provide mini-EVs to government personnel on a monthly basis. The editorial states that these mini-EVs cost slightly over 10 million kyats (approximately US$4,800 at the official exchange rate) and can reach a top speed of 55 kilometers per hour. Charging them at home through a 220-volt socket takes three to six hours, as mentioned in the editorial, which also discusses the pricing and advantages of electric motorbikes, three-wheelers, and bicycles. The editorial/advert claims that these vehicles will soon be available in the Myanmar market. However, despite the junta’s efforts to promote EVs, there is no evidence to suggest that they are gaining popularity among Myanmar citizens.
- Declining export revenue and trade deficit
Myanmar’s export revenue for the current fiscal year has experienced a decline of more than $400 million compared to the same period last year, totaling $1.569 billion. Export shipments via sea reached $961 million, while border exports amounted to over $635 million. Seaborne exports witnessed an increase of $350 million, whereas exports through the border decreased by $77 million. Six out of seven export sectors observed a decrease, particularly agricultural products at $135 million and industrial finished goods surpassing $210 million. Several factors, including the military coup, ongoing conflicts, elevated agricultural input costs, and recent storms, have adversely affected agricultural exports and may result in reduced crop yields. The manufacturing and trade sectors have been impacted by limited export/import policies, financial difficulties, unreliable electricity supply, and rising expenses. Despite efforts to manage imports, the fiscal year has resulted in a trade deficit exceeding $800 million, exacerbating the shortage of foreign exchange and widening the fiscal shortfall.
- Japanese government halts funding for Yangon-Mandalay Railway Project
The Japanese government has decreased its official development financing for the Yangon-Mandalay Railway Development Project. The Asahi Shimbun, a Japanese newspaper, reported that the aid suspension was partly motivated by the Japanese government’s condemnation of Myanmar’s military coup in 2021. Japan had been providing aid for the project since 2013 but announced in 2022 that it would no longer provide additional development funds in light of the coup, a decision deemed “understandable” by the Myanmar military. Currently, the railway modernization project is less than 25% complete. The Japanese government had originally planned to support the project until its completion. However, diplomatic documents obtained by the Asahi Shimbun revealed that in November 2022, the military council was instructed to “cancel certain parts of the project.” Japanese officials cited factors such as declining yen exchange rates, Myanmar’s deteriorating security situation, and the numerous risks and challenges posed by the global pandemic. Despite these developments, coup leader Min Aung Hlaing has continued to advocate for improvements in Myanmar’s existing railway networks and expressed aspirations for future electric and underground train systems.
Protests
- Continuing protests
Protests across the country are still going strong, including in Yangon, Yinmarbin, Laung Lone, Monywa, Kyan Khin, Myaing, and Letpadaung regions.
Attacks on the Junta’s Lackeys & Properties
- Two of the regime’s biggest supporters shot dead in Yangon
Within the last two weeks, two of the regime’s lapdogs were shot and killed in Yangon. The first one is U Tint Lwin, the chair of the Myanmar National Organization (MNO), an extremist Buddhist group that organized rallies against the National League for Democracy (NLD) and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi frequently during the previous government term. U Tint Lwin was shot in the head and died on the spot at a teashop in Ward No.48, North Dagon Township, Yangon on May 26. The second one is Daw Li Li Naing Kyaw, a famous singer who had been vocal about her support for the military coup. She was shot dead in her car as she was coming home in Yankin Township, Yangon on May 30. Yangon-based urban guerilla force claimed responsibility for the incident and said the 58-year-old singer had been coordinating with the regime to target pro-resistance activities.
- Police station attacked in Mingalardone tsp, Yangon
On the evening of June 1 around 8:30 pm, Yangon-based Special Nway Oo (SNO) mounted an attack on the Mingalardone Police Station, located on Pyay Road, Mingalardone Township, Yangon. Three explosions were blasted by remote control and a few policemen were said to be injured. Yangon UG Association said it was the seventh attack of its forces in Yangon. On the following day, the police station of Dagon Seikkan Township was also attacked with a grenade by Devil’s Clan Urban Force.
- Regime lieutenant shot and killed while shopping in Chauk, Magway Region
On the morning of June 2 around 9:00 am, Chauk Guerilla Force (CGF) conducted a mission, taking out the regime lieutenant named Aung Thu Tint in Chauk Town, Magway Region. The man was responsible for handling bank processes for his unit. And as he went grocery shopping on that day, CFG rangers planned to attack his car. However, there were other passengers on board so they waited until the lieutenant was alone and shot him twice to death. Cash worth around MMK 4 million (USD 1,900), a mobile phone, cheques, bank books and exclusive military documents were found on him and confiscated.
- Mytel communication tower burned down in Thayetchaung tsp, Tanintharyi Region
On the evening of June 2 around 8:10 pm, the military-owned Mytel communication tower was destroyed and downed in Padauknge Village, Thayetcahaung Township, Tanintharyi Region. Hawk People’s Defense Force conducted the mission and the rangers managed to retreat without any trouble after the telecom tower was burned down to ashes.
Arbitrary Arrests, Killings & Violence
- Five killed and 30 villages burned down during regime’s forces raid in Yesagyo tsp, Magway Region
The regime’s forces reportedly raided Yelalkyun area in Yesagyo Township, Magway Region for three days starting May 26. During the raid, 27 out of 40 villages were burned down, over 600 houses were destroyed and five villagers were killed. On May 26, 35-year-old Ma Khin Aye Po was killed by an indiscriminate shooting and four villagers from Nan Oo, Ye Shar, and Maekone villages were shot dead by close-range fire as they ran into the soldiers. In addition, 11 including six children were injured by an artillery fire that fell near where they were hiding.
- Man killed as regime’s forces set village on fire in Saw tsp, Magway Region
On the evening of May 31, about twenty regime troops raided and torched Yeyint Village in Saw Township, Magway Region. A man was caught in the fire and burned to death while about 27 houses were destroyed. The village is located on Mindat-Pakokku highway road, five miles south of Kyauthtu Town. Since it is close to the regime artillery unit (1 mile), many have left their homes to find safety for months. The dead victim is said to be suffering from a disease and he came back to the village to rest.
- Woman killed by artillery fire, mother died of heart failure in Pulaw tsp, Tanintharyi Region
On the morning of June 1 around 11 pm, the regime’s forces fired artillery into Minhtein Village in Pulaw Township, Tanintharyi Region without an active battle nearby. The fire hit a woman who was fetching water in the village and killed her instantly. The mother who saw the incident also died of heart failure. Similarly, the regime’s army shelled heavy artillery into Lalthit Village although there was no clash in the area, destroying houses and displacing people.
- Regime’s forces conducted airstrike on school and clinic in Mabane tsp, Shan State
On the evening of June 1 and the morning of June 2, the regime’s forces reportedly conducted aerial attacks on Ranbo Village, Mabane Township, Shan State (North), targeting a school and a clinic, without an active battle nearby. The school was completely destroyed and the clinic also fell down from the explosion. At least seven people were said to be killed by the aerial attack on the village. About 1,000 civilians from nearby villages have been displaced.
- Man killed by artillery fire in Moebye tsp, Shan-Karenni border
On the morning of June 3 around 6 am, the regime’s artillery fell on the main road of Moebye Town on the border of Shan and Karenni states, killing a 22-year-old man. The victim is Ko Aung Phyo @ A phyo who was cleaning in his house compound when a piece of the bullet hit his head and killed him. Such fires were shelled three times by the regime’s forces on that day. Karenni’s Voice, local media, said that at least nine civilians were killed by the regime’s indiscriminate shooting in Karenni State in May.
Armed Resistance
- Drone attack on regime station resulted in ten casualties in Myingyan tsp, Mandalay Region
On the morning of May 31, the combined local PDFs conducted a drone attack on the regime’s infantry battalion unit 15, resulting in as many as ten soldier deaths in Myingyan Township, Mandalay Region. Six bombs were dropped from the drone near the military commander’s house, injuring eight soldiers severely, in addition to the casualties. The attack was timed around the time the coup leader Min Aung Hlaing was visiting Myingyan Town. He was reportedly checking the status of the steel factory owned by the military to resume the operation.
- Five rangers killed during regime’s offensive on two PDF stations in Kantbalu tsp, Sagaing Region
On May 31, the regime’s army conducted an offensive on two village-based PDF stations in Kantbalu Township, Sagaing Region, resulting in five casualties. Around 4 am, about 60 troops ambushed the station in Photekone Village, four miles north of Kantbalu Sugar Factory, and killed four rangers there. Simultaneously, about 100 troops raided Area 71 People Defense Force Monywa Station, near Khinmon Village, 3 miles north of Chaungoo Town and killed one ranger. Among the victims were 18-year-old Ko Sate Thoe, Ko Zin Lin Maung, Ko Naing Htet Oo and Ko Min Min Oo all aged between 20 to 28.
- Seven regime soldiers died in Thee Mit Battle in Chin State
Since the morning of June 1, the regime’s forces have been clashing with the local resistance forces in Thee Mit plain area, between Hakha and Thantlang townships in Chin State. About 150 regime troops in two military columns reportedly accelerated efforts to attack the stations located in the plain area and suffered seven casualties due to drone attacks and snipers. Weapons and grenades were also confiscated from the regime’s fallen soldiers. Chin National Army (CNA), Chinland Defense Force (CDF)-Hakha, CDF-Thantlang, CDF-Zophei and CDF-Lautu are coordinating the defense.
- KNU conducted counteroffensive in Kyarinseikkyi, Karen State, regime’s response killed civilians
On June 2 around 4 am, a coalition of local resistance forces led by the Karen National Union (KNU) mounted counteroffensive attacks on the regime’s administrative offices in Kyarinseikkyi Town, Karen State. Due to the superior manpower from the regime, KNU forces retreated from the town shortly afterwards. And starting at 8:30 am, the regime conducted an aerial attack as retaliation, resulting in four civilian deaths including two monks. A child was also severely injured by the airstrike. Due to the clash, the town has gone silent with shops closed and the regime’s forces have reportedly continued opening fires indiscriminately.
- Guerilla attack on the regime’s convoy resulted in ten casualties in Dawei tsp, Tanintharyi Region
On the evening of May 31 around 5 pm, the regime’s military convoy was ambushed and suffered casualties in Dawei Township, Tanintharyi Region. The incident took place near the 30-mile bridge in Dawei Township as the five-vehicle convoy was heading to Yephyu from Kalainaung village. Dawei’s People Liberation Force (TPLF), Dawei National Liberation Army (DNLA), and Yephyu PDF coordinated the attack that saw 15-minute back and forth firing between two sides and left ten casualties from the regime. Ten more soldiers were also said to be injured while the rangers managed to retreat without any injuries.
Sources: Myanmar Now, Khit Thit Media, RFA Burmese, The Irrawaddy, Mizzima News, The DVB, Nikkei Asia Review
