It has only been two months since we last talked about China’s involvement and interference in Myanmar’s ongoing struggle for democracy. However, recent developments from Chinese government have prompted us to dig deeper on this issue once again. Since our last discussion, Chinese authorities have restricted flow of food, fuel, medicine and other essential items for war and daily lives, to ethnic armed organizations (EAOs)-controlled areas along their border, Chinese diplomats have been openly pressuring EAOs on their border to seek peace with the junta or face the consequences, and, in early November, the junta Min Aung Hlaing is now expected to visit China for the first time since coup. We will spare the details because these are easily available in media; the big picture is that China no longer tries to hide its support to the junta.
Here we see that the shift is in its intensity and bluntness of the support, not the direction of whether China supports the junta or not. Since Day 1 of the coup, China has consistently supported the junta. Even at times the junta show disregard to China and seek to secure Russia’s support instead, China seems to treat junta as a delinquent kid who would come back running at the sight of troubles. As a loving parent, China is not above punishing the junta when he goes too far, as in the junta’s refusal to handover its allied warlords running online scams on the preset of Operation 1027. There is a general consensus among observers that China at least turned a blind eye to Operation 1027, in part to tackle scam operations. However, since the fall of Laukkai to MNDAA, China once again increased its support to the junta, and when Lashio falls a few months ago, China ramped up their support on junta once more and thus we are at the current state of openly reprimanding and sanctioning anti-junta forces.
The disclaimer for this article is that we do not seek to blame China or any other country for their decision regarding how to respond in Myanmar. Many in Myanmar blame the US of being hypocritical and not supporting Myanmar’s pro-democracy fight beyond lip-service and China of supporting the junta. In our realist viewpoint bordering cynicism (in this article alone), despite our sympathy towards people sharing these views, we believe that both US and China are acting out of their own national interest. US is faraway and Myanmar plays no significance in its economic or security concerns. On the contrary, China, being our immediate neighbor, have massive reasons to care and thus to get involved in Myanmar. In this article, we would not talk about those who are of no help. But when China supports the junta who is harming us, that calls our attention, and our view is that, while it is understandable that China wants to protect its national interests and fragmentation of Myanmar would be detrimental to these interests (thus China’s open stance against fragmentation of the country), the means China is taking at the moment is leading to just that. It makes sense why China would want to avoid fragmentation. However, the mistake is in believing the military as the central authority and standing by it after repeated backfiring. The people across the country do not support the military and are willing to die and kill to get rid of it.
Since the early days of the coup, it is obvious that China only sees the junta’s military as the hegemonic power which can keep all other factions in check. This could have been true back then. However, the landscape has shifted tremendously now. The junta and his military is losing every battle and territorial controls every week, without any sight of recovery. While the human suffering is massive and the “liberated areas” are yet to see peace and prosperity for Myanmar side, for China, the outcome at the macro level is clear – their guys cannot win and what China fears worst getting closer to a reality. At this rate, the future of Myanmar will not provide stability and associated economic and security benefits to China.
The way we see from realist (and cynical view), China now has two options to improve their chances of achieving a stable Myanmar under a government they can influence. The first is to lend direct military support to the junta in a manner Putin’s Russia came to al-Assad’s regime in Syrian Civil War. At this rate, a protracted draw or more likely scenario of junta’s eventual defeat would not do any good to China. Therefore, if China really sees junta’s military as the rightful ruler of Myanmar (as mentioned in the meeting between senior Chinese diplomats and United Wa State Army), and determined to support the junta, they might as well support the junta fully until its goals are achieved. Having the junta surrounded by different EAOs with each side keeping the other in-check might help China well. However, the junta’s capability to achieve victory is highly doubtful and openly providing military and financial aids to the junta would not be without consequences in global stage. We are already poor and dying, can China bear the reputation and financial costs of supporting junta in a Putin-to-al-Assad style?
Or as an alternative, China can stop supporting the junta’s military altogether and support the emergence of an authority who has the support of the people. In creating such an entity, China could even put mechanisms and leverages to ensure successive Myanmar central authorities would be under their influence. The junta’s rival faction vying for national level government, i.e. the National Unity Government of Myanmar (NUG) is often accused of American-backed by China and that accusation has been used liberally by China to justify its support to the junta. However, we take that it is not that China really has evidences in US supporting NUG, but rather they are just claiming that way to legitimize support to the junta. The NUG, for all its flaws, still commands support of the people of Myanmar, and have shown willingness to work with any factions, local or foreign, that would be of help in toppling junta. In the long-term, backing NUG, instead of the junta, would help achieve the stability and protection to Chinese security and economic interests in Myanmar.
China, for all its long history, would surely be aware that power alone cannot ensure stability, particularly when that power is weak and tyrannical. It’s unfortunate that they are blinded by their arrogance.
