Lessons from South Korea & Syria

by mohingamatters

On December 3, 2024, President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea stunned the world by declaring martial law, a decision that seemed almost unthinkable for a country with such a strong democratic tradition. The announcement set off massive protests across South Korea, with thousands of citizens braving subzero temperatures to demand the president’s resignation. The cries of “No Martial Law!” and “Down with the dictatorship!” resonated through the streets, evoking memories of earlier democratic movements in the country.

This scene seemed eerily familiar to the events that unfolded in Myanmar nearly four years earlier. In February 2021, Myanmar’s military led by General Min Aung Hlaing ousted the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in a coup. Since then, the country has been in turmoil, with violent repression of civilian resistance and no end in sight. While South Korea’s democratic institutions have held strong in the face of an authoritarian challenge, Myanmar’s fragile democracy collapsed, showcasing the vulnerability of emerging democracies under military control.

In the same month, in Syria, the longtime dictator Bashar al-Assad saw his regime toppled on December 8, 2024, by opposition forces, ending over a decade of brutal civil war and authoritarian rule. This sudden collapse of Assad’s government raises an intriguing question: Could Myanmar’s military junta face a similar downfall? As Myanmar’s People’s Defense Forces (PDF) and ethnic armed groups continue to make gains against the junta, the fall of Assad’s regime serves as a potential blueprint for Myanmar’s resistance movements.

South Korea’s Protests: A Defense of Democracy

South Korea’s reaction to President Yoon’s declaration of martial law underscores the deep commitment the country has to democratic values. South Korea’s transition to democracy has been long and hard-won, with democratic forces fighting against authoritarian rule for decades. From the 1987 June Democratic Uprising to the peaceful impeachment of President Park Geun-hye in 2017, South Korea has shown time and again that its people will stand up for their freedoms.

The recent protests against Yoon’s martial law demonstrate the strength of these democratic institutions. South Koreans, who had once experienced military dictatorship firsthand, are not easily intimidated by a leader’s attempt to consolidate power. Protests, though large and passionate, have largely remained non-violent, in keeping with South Korea’s democratic tradition. This strong civil society—backed by a free press and a vocal opposition—plays a crucial role in resisting any backslide into authoritarianism.

Myanmar: A Fragile Democracy Overrun by the Military

By contrast, Myanmar’s transition to democracy was much more fragile. After decades of military rule, Myanmar began its experiment with democracy in 2011. In 2015, the National League for Democracy (NLD), led by Aung San Suu Kyi, won a historic election. However, the military never fully relinquished its power, maintaining significant influence over the government and parliamentary system through a constitution that guaranteed military control over key ministries and 25% of the parliament.

In February 2021, just days after the NLD’s resounding electoral victory, the military launched a coup, arresting Aung San Suu Kyi and key members of her government. The coup was met with mass protests, but Myanmar’s democracy was far too premature and fragile to withstand the military’s brutality. Security forces responded with overwhelming force, killing thousands and arresting hundreds of thousands. Despite the courage of the people, the military’s control over the security apparatus made it nearly impossible to mount a sustained challenge.

Unlike South Korea, where democratic institutions have evolved and strengthened over decades, Myanmar’s democratic framework was never deeply rooted. The military’s control over the country’s economy, security forces, and media allowed it to stifle dissent with relative ease. As a result, Myanmar’s democratic experiment crumbled almost overnight under military rule.

Syria’s Fall: Lessons for Myanmar

The recent fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria offers an interesting parallel to Myanmar’s situation. Assad, like Myanmar’s military junta, relied heavily on brutal repression to maintain control. Backed by Russia and Iran, he was able to survive a devastating civil war that lasted for over a decade, causing hundreds of thousands of deaths and displacing millions. However, after years of military defeats, defections, and shifting alliances, the Syrian opposition forces finally toppled Assad’s regime on December 8, 2024.

Assad’s downfall serves as a potent reminder that even the most entrenched authoritarian regimes can eventually fall. The key to Assad’s collapse was the sustained resistance of the Syrian opposition, which continued to fight despite overwhelming odds since the Arab Spring began in 2011. As internal divisions within Assad’s military grew, and as defections from his forces became more common, the regime’s grip on power weakened. Some analysts have also stated that the wars in Ukraine and Palestine had also contributed to weakening Russian and Iranian support to the Assad regime. Eventually, the opposition capitalized on these weaknesses, leading to the regime’s ultimate collapse.

This outcome could offer hope for Myanmar’s opposition forces. Like Syria’s rebels, Myanmar’s resistance—made up of the People’s Defense Forces (PDF) and various ethnic armed groups—has been steadily gaining ground against the junta despite its challenges. The military, despite its dominance, has struggled to maintain control over vast regions of the country. As Myanmar’s resistance intensifies, with defecting soldiers and growing militias, the junta’s position is becoming increasingly precarious.

The Parallel: Myanmar’s Military Junta and Syria’s Assad

The situation in Myanmar mirrors the challenges faced by Assad’s regime in several ways. Both the Syrian regime and Myanmar’s military junta rely on brute force to maintain control, but neither has the widespread popular support necessary to sustain that power in the long run. In Syria, internal dissent and defections within the military weakened Assad’s hold while the opposition grew in strength. Similarly, in Myanmar, the military’s reliance on violence and repression is beginning to fracture as ethnic militias and resistance groups gain more territory and momentum.

Furthermore, Myanmar’s junta faces growing international pressure, much like Assad’s regime did. Economic sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and increasing support for Myanmar’s resistance from the international community could accelerate the junta’s downfall. Just as Assad’s regime ultimately crumbled despite his international backers, Myanmar’s military may eventually find itself unable to withstand the combined weight of internal resistance and external pressure.

The Road Ahead for Myanmar

The fall of Bashar al-Assad and the ongoing struggle in Myanmar offer important lessons about the dynamics of authoritarian rule. While South Korea’s protests demonstrate the strength of a mature democracy fighting back against authoritarian overreach, Myanmar’s situation highlights the fragility of fledgling democracies in the face of military control. However, the fall of Assad shows that even the most entrenched authoritarian regimes are not invincible. With sustained resistance and growing internal divisions, Myanmar’s military junta could eventually face a similar reckoning.

The road to democracy in Myanmar is long, but the experiences of Syria and South Korea offer hope. As Myanmar’s resistance forces continue to challenge the junta, the eventual collapse of the military regime is not out of the question. The lessons of Syria’s fall, coupled with the resilience of South Korea’s protests, provide a blueprint for Myanmar’s opposition to follow as they continue to fight for a democratic future that guarantees basic human dignity and human rights.

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